miss

Date: February 10, 2026
Ticker: NYSE: SPGI
Topic: Q4 Earnings and Full Year 2025 Earnings Summary

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Earnings Summary

• Revenue: S&P Global reported $3.92 billion in revenue, slightly beating the analyst consensus of $3.91 billion.
• Reported revenue increased 9% year-over-year compared to $3.59 billion in Q4 2024.
• EPS: Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) came in at $4.30, narrowly missing the analyst expectation of $4.32.
• This represents a 14% increase from the $3.77 EPS reported in Q4 2024.
• Net Income: GAAP Net Income was $1.13 billion, up 29% from the same quarter last year.
• Ratings Revenue: Increased 12% year-over-year to $1.19 billion, driven by transaction revenue growth.
• Indices Revenue: Grew 14% year-over-year to $498 million, supported by higher asset-linked fees.

Financials S&P Global

Market Context

S&P Global delivered solid top-line growth in the fourth quarter, driven by strength across its Ratings and Indices segments. While revenue exceeded expectations, the slight miss on adjusted earnings suggests higher operating expenses or investment costs weighed on margins. The company continues to benefit from robust debt issuance volumes and market appreciation boosting asset-based fees.

Metric	Q4 2025	Q4 2024	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Q1 2025
Revenue	$3,916	$3,592	$3,888	$3,755	$3,777
Adjusted EPS	$4.30	$3.77	$4.73	$4.43	$4.37
GAAP Net Income	$1,134	$880	$1,176	$1,072	$1,090
GAAP Diluted EPS	$3.75	$2.85	$3.86	$3.50	$3.54
Op. Profit Margin (Adj)	47.30%	46.70%	52.10%	51.40%	48.80%
Market Intelligence	$1,260	$1,182	$1,245	$1,220	$1,195
Ratings	$1,190	$1,064	$1,150	$1,080	$1,050
Commodity Insights	$590	$558	$605	$600	$612
Mobility	$444	$405	$435	$438	$420
Indices	$498	$436	$470	$446	$445

Revenue: Growth was led by the Indices segment (+14%) and Ratings (+12%), reflecting strong capital market activity.
EPS: Despite the miss against estimates, double-digit year-over-year growth (14%) highlights operational leverage.
Margins: Adjusted operating profit margin expanded to 47.3%, demonstrating continued efficiency gains.

S&P Global posted a healthy 9% revenue increase, capitalizing on favorable market conditions for its Ratings and Indices businesses. However, the slight earnings miss indicates that expense management remains a key area to watch as the company invests in growth.

Full Year 2025 Financials

Metric	FY 2025	FY 2024	YoY Change
Revenue	$15,336	$14,208	+8%
Operating Profit (GAAP)	$6,380*	$5,300*	+20%
Operating Margin (GAAP)	41.60%	37.30%	+430 bps
Adjusted Op. Profit	$7,600*	$6,960*	+9%
Adjusted Op. Margin	49.60%	49.00%	+60 bps
Net Income (GAAP)	$4,471	$3,852	+16%
Adjusted Net Income	$5,441	$4,898	+11%
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$14.66	$12.35	+19%
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$17.83	$15.70	+14%
Free Cash Flow	$4,900*	$4,200*	+17%

Despite crossing the $200 billion revenue milestone, full-year net income and EPS declined slightly. This was primarily due to a significantly higher provision for income taxes ($25.5 billion in 2025 vs $8.3 billion in 2024), driven by the implementation of new tax legislation. Without this tax headwind, the effective tax rate would have been 13% instead of 30%.

Outlook: Q1 2026 & Beyond

S&P Global issued guidance for the full year 2026, projecting continued growth.

• Revenue Growth: Expected to be in the range of 6.6% to 8.6%.
• Adjusted EPS: Forecasted between $19.40 and $19.65.
• Analyst Comparison: The EPS guidance range is slightly below the current analyst consensus of $20.02, which may temper investor enthusiasm.

Market & Price Trends

Following the earnings release, S&P Global shares fell approximately 5.9% in early trading. The decline reflects investor disappointment with the earnings miss and the softer-than-expected 2026 earnings guidance, despite the revenue beat and strong year-over-year growth.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice; always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Date: February 3, 2026
Ticker: NASDAQ: PYPL
Topic: Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Summary

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Earnings Summary

• Revenue: PayPal reported net revenues of $8.68 billion, missing the analyst consensus of ~$8.77 billion by roughly 1%. While this represents a 4% increase year-over-year compared to $8.37 billion in Q4 2024, the growth was slower than anticipated.
• EPS: Adjusted non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.23, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.29 by approximately 4.5%. However, this still reflects a 3% increase from the $1.19 reported in the same quarter last year.
• Net Income: GAAP net income increased to $1.58 billion (or $1.53 per share), up significantly from $1.16 billion (or $1.11 per share) in Q4 2024. This 36% increase in GAAP net income was partly driven by operational efficiencies despite the top-line miss.
• Leadership Change: In a major surprise, PayPal announced the appointment of Enrique Lores as the new President and CEO, effective March 1, 2026. Current CFO Jamie Miller will serve as Interim CEO. This sudden transition has added to investor uncertainty regarding the company’s strategic direction.
• Transaction Margin Pressure: Transaction margin dollars grew 3% to $4.0 billion. While positive, the slower growth here relative to total volume suggests continued pressure from mix shifts toward lower-margin unbranded processing.

Financials: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (Q4 2025)

Market Context

The payments sector remains highly competitive, with “branded checkout” growth being a critical battleground. PayPal’s results confirm that while it is growing volume, it is struggling to re-accelerate high-margin branded growth as fast as the market hopes. The 17% pre-market stock drop reflects deep disappointment in both the earnings miss and the abrupt leadership change.

Metric/Quarter	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2024
Total Net Revenues	$8,676	$8,417	$8,288	$7,791	$8,366
Transaction Revenues	$7,819	$7,522	$7,441	$7,016	$7,588
Other Value Added Services	$857	$895	$847	$775	$778
Total Payment Volume (TPV)	$475,135	$458,088	$443,547	$417,208	$437,836
Active Accounts (Millions)	439	438	438	436	434
Payment Transactions	6,754	6,331	6,226	6,045	6,619
Trans. per Active Account (TPA)	57.7	57.6	58.3	59.4	60.6
Transaction Margin	46.50%	46.00%	46.40%	47.70%	47.00%

Revenue growth (24% YoY) continues to outpace expense growth in the core business, but total costs and expenses surged 40% YoY to $35.15 billion, compressing operating margins to 41% from 48% a year ago. This margin compression is a direct result of the heavy infrastructure investment and talent acquisition in AI.

Full Year 2025 Financials

Metric/Quarter	FY’25	FY’24	YoY Growth
Total Payment Volume (TPV)	$1,793,979	$1,681,150	7%
Net Revenues	$33,172	$31,797	4%
Operating Income	$6,065	$5,325	14%
Operating Margin	18.30%	16.70%	154 bps
Net Income	$5,233	$4,147	26%
EPS (Diluted)	$5.41	$3.99	35%
Cash flow from operations	$6,416	$7,450	-14%
Operating Income	$6,378	$5,838	9%
Operating Margin	19.20%	18.40%	87 bps
Net Income	$5,142	$4,835	6%
EPS (Diluted)	$5.31	$4.65	14%
Free Cash Flow	$5,564	$6,767	-18%

Notable Takeaways

Active Accounts Stabilization: Active accounts grew marginally to 439 million, a stabilization after periods of churn, though growth remains anemic at just roughly 1%.
Volume vs. Revenue Disconnect: Total Payment Volume (TPV) grew a healthy 9%, outpacing revenue growth of 4%. This divergence highlights the “take rate” pressure PayPal faces as faster-growing unbranded processing (like Braintree) carries lower fees than the core PayPal button.
Expense Control: Despite the revenue miss, GAAP operating margins expanded slightly to 17.4%, showing that cost-cutting measures are taking effect.

Outlook: Q1 2026 & Beyond

Management provided a bullish revenue outlook but accompanied it with a massive expense forecast.

• Despite the Q4 miss, PayPal provided a somewhat resilient outlook for the upcoming year, though Q1 guidance was soft.
• Q1 2026 Warning: Management guided for a mid-single-digit decline in Q1 earnings, signaling a tough start to the year as they invest in transition efforts.
• Full Year 2026 EPS: The company projects 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $5.75. This is slightly above the consensus estimate of $5.73, suggesting management believes the back half of the year will improve significantly under new leadership.

Market & Price Trends

The market’s reaction has been brutal. PayPal shares plummeted over 16% in pre-market trading following the report. Investors are clearly voting with their feet, spooked by the revenue miss and the uncertainty of a CEO change during a critical turnaround period. The stock is currently underperforming the broader fintech sector significantly.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice; always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.